Allies of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are concerned about the ability of his pre-candidacy for the Presidency to maintain the performance recorded in the polls. Despite a good start, the assessment within the senator's circle is that support is not yet consolidated and may fluctuate throughout the campaign.
The concern gained strength after the release of surveys indicating high voter volatility. According to a Meio/Ideia poll, 51,4% of Brazilians say they could change their candidate by October. Among Flávio Bolsonaro's voters, this rate is even higher, reaching 60,4%, reinforcing the perception of fragility in securing this support. This information comes from columnist Caio Barbieri of the newspaper... State of Minas.
The scenario is reminiscent of other campaigns.
Behind the scenes, allies are comparing the current situation to the trajectories of candidates who started out competitive but lost momentum throughout the electoral process. Examples cited include Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva.
In 2002, Ciro emerged as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's main opponent, but finished the race in fourth place. Marina, in 2014, rose to prominence after the death of Eduardo Campos, but also lost momentum and finished the election in third position.
The consensus among those involved is that the current volatility could lead to a similar movement, with significant changes in voting intentions as the campaign progresses.
Dependence on family political capital
Another point observed by allies is the origin of the support received by the senator. A significant portion of the voting intention is linked to the political capital of former president Jair Bolsonaro, which, according to sources, could represent both an initial boost and a vulnerability.
This is because, in a fragmented race within the conservative field, other candidates may compete for the same electorate. Internal competition on the right is seen as an additional risk factor for maintaining performance in the polls.
Dispute on the right puts pressure on the political landscape.
The rise of leaders with discourses more aligned with the hard core of Bolsonaro's supporters is also being closely watched. The former governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, is cited as an example of someone who could attract part of this electorate.
Furthermore, Flávio Bolsonaro's more moderate stance, with less involvement in controversies, is seen by some allies as a factor that could alienate more ideological voters.
The combination of a high percentage of voters willing to change their vote and the fragmentation of the conservative field is seen as a central challenge for the pre-candidacy. The assessment among close political allies is that, without a consolidated base, the senator may face fluctuations throughout the campaign.
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