German economist Joachim Klement, known internationally as the "World Cup guru," has once again stirred up the football world after releasing his complete prediction for the 2026 World Cup. The expert gained fame for correctly predicting the champions of the last three editions of the tournament: Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022.
In the new projection, the mathematical model points to the Netherlands as world champions for the first time in history. According to the simulation, the Dutch would defeat Portugal in the grand final of the World Cup, scheduled for MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, United States.
The forecast also predicts a disappointing campaign for Brazil. Despite advancing first in the group stage, the Brazilian team would end up being eliminated by Japan in the first knockout round, a result considered by the economist to be one of the biggest upsets in the tournament's recent history.
The semi-finals would feature the Netherlands, Portugal, France, and England.
The study released by Joachim Klement projects semifinals completely dominated by European teams. On one side of the bracket, the Netherlands would face France, the current world runner-up. In the other match, Portugal would face England in a contest considered balanced by the statistical model.
According to the simulation, the Dutch would eliminate the French to advance to the final, while Portugal would overcome England and secure a place in an unprecedented final against the Netherlands.
Argentina, the reigning world champions after winning the title in Qatar in 2022, appear among the favorite teams in the study, but would fall short before the final, defeated by Portugal in the quarterfinals, failing to defend the trophy won in the last World Cup.
Brazil would face a historic defeat against Japan.
The prediction involving Brazil, naturally, was the one that generated the most buzz on social media and among football experts. The mathematical model suggests that the Japanese team would surprise the Brazilian team right in the knockout stage.
According to Joachim Klement, the technical growth of Asian national teams and the increasing balance between them significantly increase the possibility of unexpected results during the 2026 World Cup.
If the projection is correct, the elimination against Japan will go down as one of the most traumatic chapters in the history of the Brazilian national team in World Cups.
Mathematical model gained fame after three consecutive correct predictions.
Joachim Klement developed his forecasting system using economic factors, sports statistics, national team rankings, recent performance, and historical results in World Cups.
The model gained notoriety after correctly predicting the titles of Germany, France, and Argentina in the last three editions of the world tournament. Since then, the economist's analyses have generated great repercussion among fans and experts.
Despite the positive track record, the economist himself states that football remains highly unpredictable and that emotional factors, injuries, and surprises on the field can completely alter any statistical projection.
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